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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-08-24 04:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240245 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that Laura continues to gradually become better organized. Convection is quite deep on the south side of the circulation, and rainfall is likely very heavy over portions of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A surface observation from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, measured sustained winds of 52 kt with a wind gust to 63 kt a few hours ago. Based on this observation and the system's improved structure, the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt. Laura continues to move swiftly to the west-northwest on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/18 kt. The subtropical high is expected to expand westward during the next couple of days, and that should keep Laura moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest near or over Cuba through Monday and then across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The models suggest that a gradual turn to the northwest is likely by early Wednesday as the storm nears the western side of the ridge, followed by a northward motion after that. The details of the northwest and north turn are quite important when trying to figure out where the core of Laura is going to make landfall. However, at this time there is still a notable spread in the models and their ensemble members, meaning that it is still unclear exactly where the worst weather conditions will occur. The NHC track forecast is little changed from earlier and near the consensus aids. This forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in about 3 days. The tropical storm is expected to move very near or over the entire island of Cuba through Monday, and the interaction with the island should limit strengthening during that time. However, significant intensification is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico due to a combination of favorable conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although not explicitly forecast, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas on Monday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower Florida Keys on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.1N 76.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA 12H 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA 24H 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-08-23 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232055 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Satellite imagery and radar data from eastern Cuba show that the center of Laura has been moving over water between Haiti and eastern Cuba this afternoon. There has been a recent uptick in convection near the center and the radar imagery has shown an increase in banding. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Laura this afternoon has reported a minimum pressure that has fallen to around 1000 mb, and winds to support an intensity of 50 kt. The plane very recently found a small area of stronger flight-level winds, but these winds may be associated with mesocyclone, and not representative of the large scale circulation. Laura continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory. Laura should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge that is forecast to build westward across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. The track guidance has continued to edge southward for the portion of the forecast near Cuba, and the NHC forecast has again been moved in that direction. Laura should continue moving west-northwestward over the southeastern Gulf on Tuesday, but a turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday night as the cyclone nears the western portion of the ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion should then continue around the western portion of the ridge until the cyclone reaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The latest run of the ECMWF has shifted significantly eastward, however its ensemble mean and many of the stronger ensemble members remain farther west as a stronger cyclone is likely to be steered more westward by the deep-layer ridge. The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF remain close to the previous NHC track, so little change was made to the official forecast was made after 48 hours. The intensity forecast during the next 24 hours is highly dependent on the track and the amount of interaction Laura has with Cuba. If the storm stays along the southern coast or just offshore, the environment of warm water and low vertical wind shear could allow for some slight strengthening, but little overall change in intensity is indicated during the next 24 hours. After the center clears western Cuba, the upper-level wind pattern is predicted to quite favorable while the storm traverses the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast at the longer range as winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA 24H 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-08-23 22:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232054 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE HAITI * INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA... ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Marco Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-08-23 22:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232054 TCDAT4 Hurricane Marco Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Shortly after the 10 AM CDT advisory was issued, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Marco measured SFMR winds of 65 to 69 kt for several minutes. A dropsonde around the same time also measured winds equivalent to 64 kt at the surface. Based on these data, it was evident that Marco had strengthened into a hurricane. Since that time, the convective pattern has changed little, and the final leg of the aircraft mission did not reveal any notable changes to the cyclone's intensity. Therefore, the initial intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is also in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. Marco continues to move north-northwest at around 11 kt. Model guidance is in good agreement on a north-northwest and then northwest motion into Monday morning as Marco nears the northern Gulf coast. However, there has been a major shift in the track guidance beyond Monday morning, and the majority of the forecast models now keep Marco offshore of the northern Gulf coast for the next few days rather than moving it inland over Louisiana Monday afternoon. Since this shift was so abrupt, I would rather split the difference between the previous official forecast track and the latest consensus tracks until another round of model runs can confirm this new suggested track is higher confidence. Based on this shift in track, tropical storm conditions are expected farther west along the Louisiana coast, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana. It should be noted that if the trend in the models are correct, some of the impacts over portions of the north-central Gulf coast could be lessened. The current shear analysis from UW-CIMSS shows that Marco is experiencing about 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear, yet Marco has been able to slowly strengthen in this environment today, likely due to the presence of very warm waters and plenty of atmospheric moisture. By late tonight and through Monday, the SHIPS guidance suggests this shear will increase to over 30 kt. This should limit any further intensification, and could cause Marco to weaken before it nears the northern Gulf coast Monday afternoon. By Monday night, the shear is forecast to increase to close to 40 kt, which should strip the convection away from the center of the cyclone, causing it to weaken. After 48 h, Marco is now expected to become a remnant low devoid of deep convection. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance through 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 27.1N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 28.5N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1800Z 29.8N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0600Z 29.9N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 26/1800Z 29.7N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Marco Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-08-23 22:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 111 WTNT24 KNHC 232053 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 87.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 87.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.1N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 89.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.8N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.9N 95.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.7N 96.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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