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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-23 16:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231457 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Deep convection with cloud tops of -75 to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Marco for the past several hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the cyclone measured winds equivalent to 62 kt both with the SFMR and in a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall. However, the aircraft reported peak 850-mb flight level winds of only 64 kt. Based on a blend of these data it appears that Marco is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane, but is not quite there yet. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. Based on the SHIPS guidance, Marco has about a 12-24 hour window to intensify in an environment characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, very warm waters, and plenty of atmospheric moisture. After that time, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and this should begin to dominate the cyclone's environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, forecasting Marco to become a hurricane later today, and maintaining hurricane intensity up until landfall in agreement with the latest LGEM intensity guidance. While it is possible that Marco will weaken just prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system. Marco is moving north-northwestward or 340/12 kt. Although the overall guidance has not changed much since the previous advisory, there remains considerable spread in this guidance by the time Marco reaches the northern Gulf coast. This spread could be attributed to the varying ways the models handle the system as it encounters the more hostile environment near the coast. Since the track consensus aids have changed little through 36 h, the official forecast is essentially the same as the previous one through that time. The model guidance has shifted a little northward beyond 36 h, so the official forecast was nudged to the north during that time as well. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 24.7N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.4N 88.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 29.5N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z 31.2N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 31.8N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-23 16:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 88.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.8N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-23 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231454 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Laura continues to produce a large area of deep convection to the south and southeast of the estimated center location. The center has not been easy to locate this morning, but the low-cloud motions seen in GOES-16 one-minute visible imagery, along with surface observations, suggest that the center is just west of the west coast of Haiti. Data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft that has flown a tail-Doppler radar mission along the southern and northern coasts of Hispaniola this morning found maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours while Laura moves near or over Cuba. When the center of Laura emerges over the Gulf of Mexico Monday night, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive for strengthening, and once the circulation recovers from its trek over land, deepening is anticipated. Warm water and a very favorable upper-level wind pattern are expected to allow for steady intensification until Laura reaches the northern Gulf coast, and with landfall expected between the 72 and 96 h forecast points, the system could be somewhat stronger than explicitly indicated below. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. Although the center of Laura was been difficult to track while it passed over Hispaniola, the estimated motion is west-northwestward at about 18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Laura west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance has continued to nudge southward during the first 36 hours and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly, taking the storm closer to the southern coast of Cuba. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should allow Laura to maintain a west-northwestward motion until it approaches the central Gulf, where a northwestward motion is expected to begin as the storm nears the western periphery of the ridge. The dynamical models have trended toward stronger ridging over the eastern Gulf, resulting in a westward shift in the guidance. The NHC track forecast has been moved westward at 72-96 hours, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track forecast at the longer range as future adjustments will likely be required, and storm hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the central Bahamas and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-23 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 73.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-23 10:59:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Laura has maintained an impressive convective pattern despite the center being located over extreme south-central Dominican Republic. Numerous cloud tops of -85C to -90C have been noted over the Barahona peninsula, an indication that extremely heavy rainfall has been occurring there. The center of Laura passed over or very near Santo Domingo around 0430Z based on a noticeable wind shift that was measured at the international airport. Laura's outflow pattern has also continue to improve in all quadrants. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier scatterometer and aircraft data, along with surface observations along the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Laura has continued to move west-northwestward and the initial motion estimate is now 285/16 kt. There has been a significant westward shift in the latest NHC model guidance, which appears to be due to most of the global models taking the center of Laura farther south over central or southern Hispaniola rather than emerging it off the north coast of Haiti like the GFS is and has been forecasting. Given that the most intense convection has persisted along the southern coast of Hispaniola, that is where the most likely area that a low-level and/or mid-level circulation is most probable to develop or persist. As a result, the new NHC track forecast favors a more southerly and westerly track solution similar to the preponderance of the track guidance. However, the new forecast track has not been shifted as far to the left as the consensus models in the event that the models shift back to the north. However, the latter scenario is appearing less likely based observed satellite trends since the previous advisory. Little if any significant change in strength is expected due to Laura moving pretty much down the spine of Hispaniola and Cuba during the the next 36 hours, with the strongest wind likely remaining over water in the northeast quadrant where the pressure gradient will be the tightest between the cyclone and the Bermuda High. By 48 hours and continuing until landfall, Laura is forecast to remain in a low shear and very favorable upper-level outflow environment while passing of extremely warm SSTs near 31C. This should allow for significant strengthening to occur once the cyclone regains a decent inner core after exiting Cuba. The new NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the intensity forecasts by the GFS and ECMWF global models and the corrected consensus models HCCA and FSSE. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible the central Bahamas and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Tropical Storm Marco earlier in the week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.8N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.8N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 24/0600Z 20.9N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 22.2N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0600Z 23.5N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 25/1800Z 24.9N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 26.4N 89.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 29.9N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 35.0N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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