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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-24 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241445 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Strong southwesterly shear is taking its toll on Marco, with the edge of the nearest deep convection now displaced 50 n mi northeast of the exposed circulation center. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated the system this morning measured 45-kt surface winds with the onboard SFMR instrument in that convection, but winds of only 20 to 30 kt were measured between this thunderstorm activity and the cyclone's center. Sampling by the aircraft has also revealed that winds of tropical storm force are likely no longer occurring in any portion of the circulation except in that convection. Based on the SFMR data, the initial intensity is initialized at 45 kt. The shear is not forecast to abate in the foreseeable future, and the simulated satellite imagery in the GFS and ECMWF suggests that Marco will degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast is near the various consensus aids, which shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression late tonight. Based on the updated intensity forecast, tropical storm conditions are no longer expected to be produced by Marco over the central portions of the Louisiana coast, and the Tropical Storm Warnings for those locations have been discontinued. Marco has slowed down and has moved a little to the right of the forecast track over the past few hours, with an initial motion of NNW/7 kt. The track guidance for the entire forecast period has shifted back northward, and is just south of where it was this time yesterday. The official forecast track was adjusted eastward in the near term to accommodate the recent right-of-track bias. After 12 h, the track forecast lies between the previous one and most of the consensus track guidance. On this track, Marco is expected to move inland tonight, and remain inland when the system turns west-northwestward in the low-level flow by Tuesday morning. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 28.5N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.2N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 16:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 88.5W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 88.5W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.2N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 88.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-24 16:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241440 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Laura's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since yesterday, however, there has been a recent increase in convection near the center, and a large band over the southern periphery of the circulation. It appears that the combination of land interaction, moderate northerly shear, and some dry air has caused the change in structure. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft have reported several believable SFMR winds in the 45-50 kt range and a minimum pressure of around 1002 kt. Based on these observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt. Laura is forecast to pass over the very warm water of the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of the coast of Cuba today, and some modest strengthening is possible before the center moves over the western portion of Cuba this evening. Laura is then forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight where a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable upper-level environment are expected to allow for steady strengthening. Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage over western Cuba. The regional hurricane models remain quite bullish on intensification, and the GFS and UKMET models indicate significant deepening while Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico. The statistical guidance is not as aggressive, and the NHC forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids which lie between the higher solutions of the regional models and the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Laura has been moving on a steady west-northwestward track over the past day or so, and the initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. The deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, and this should keep Laura on a west-northwestward heading through Tuesday. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States should produce a break in the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. Laura should turn northwestward Tuesday night in response to the break in the ridge, and the storm is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday night. The cyclone should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by day 4, and Laura or its remnants should recurve to the northeast and east-northeast by the end of the period. Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today, there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today. 2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast through the north- central Gulf Coast beginning on Wednesday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Laura and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, as storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.2N 80.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 16:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241439 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. NORTHWEST GULF COAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 80.6W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 80.6W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 80.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-24 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240858 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco is clearly weakening tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission showed that flight-level and SFMR had decreased along with a substantial rise in central pressure. In addition, GOES-16 1-min satellite data show the surface center well displaced from the deep convection, and it appears that Marco is decoupling from its mid-level circulation to the northeast. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, and that could be generous. Some large changes have been required on this forecast. Considering the shear is only forecast to increase, there is no significant chance that Marco re-intensifies to a hurricane, and the hurricane warnings have been replaced with tropical storm warnings. Furthermore, now that the storm is losing vertical coherence, the intensity forecast has been decreased as well, and is fairly consistent with the model consensus and almost every model. Marco has turned northwestward this morning at about 9 kt. The storm should gradually turn westward as it approaches southeastern Louisiana due to the shallower cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the Texas/Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center, so users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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