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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite the system's poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected. However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 38.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-15 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-14 22:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142054 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ASCAT-B data valid around 1900 UTC showed max winds a little higher than 30 kt associated with the rain-free circulation of the depression. However, since that time, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded substantially and if it was previously producing winds of tropical-storm-force, it likely no longer is doing so at this time. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 30 kt. Only minor fluctuations in the intensity and structure of the depression are expected for the next 3 days due to strong northeasterly wind shear. Assuming the system doesn't dissipate at some point during that period of time, the upper-level winds could become less hostile early next week. The dynamical guidance generally indicates that the tropical cyclone will hang on and modest strengthening is possible early next week. No changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the multi-model consensus. Likewise, only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is still forecast to meander for the next 5 days, initially west-southwestward to westward, then northwestward over the weekend. The strength of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is the primary factor in the steering flow. While there are slight variations from model to model on the speed and heading of the tropical cyclone, they all agree that it won't move much through the early portion of next week, and possibly even beyond that. The NHC forecast essentially splits the difference between the previous official forecast, HCCA, and TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-14 22:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 142052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 132.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-14 22:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds, the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005. Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude trough will continue to steer the system generally east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the Canadian Maritimes. As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within 48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after 72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the global models for the extratropical phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 37.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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