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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-14 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 142035 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the circulation of Josephine was still closed, and that the center was a little farther to the north than previously thought - possibly due to reformation close to a strong convective burst. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 1004 mb, and the combination of flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that Josephine is encountering increasing westerly shear, with cirrus clouds west of the storm blowing into the cyclone. Aside from the nudge to the north, the initial motion is generally west-northwestward or 300/14 kt. There is again no change to the track forecast philosophy. Josephine should continue a west- northwestward motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should gradually turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. Portions of the forecast track have been adjusted northward based mainly on the initial position, and the new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The increasing shear means that Josephine is just about out of time to intensify. The intensity forecast calls for a little strengthening tonight in case a convective burst causes some spin up. After that, the cyclone should weaken, with the new forecast showing it becoming a depression in 48 h and a remnant low by 96 hr. The global models continue to forecast a faster weakening, and there is still the alternative scenario that Josephine could decay to a tropical wave before 96 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.8N 56.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.6N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.9N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.1N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 24.1N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 25.7N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 28.6N 67.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 32.1N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-14 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 71.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 71.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 71.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-14 22:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 58.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.9N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.1N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 65.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.7N 67.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 28.6N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 32.1N 65.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 54.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 54.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141441 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Josephine is located to the south or southwest of the strongest area of convection, likely due to the onset of southwesterly vertical wind shear. A just-received scatterometer pass supports an initial intensity of 35 kt, but also suggests the possibility that the circulation is longer closed. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity and whether a closed circulation still exists. The initial motion continues west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the higher-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has not changed significantly since the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast. Southwesterly to westerly shear should markedly increase after 12-18 h due mainly to upper-level troughing over the southwestern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast leaves open the possibility of a little strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by weakening due to the shear. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast showing the system decaying to a remnant low by 120 h. However, an alternative scenario, supported by several of the global models, is that the cyclone decays to a tropical wave well before that time. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.1N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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