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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-08-29 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of northwesterly shear. Since there has been no appreciable change to the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory. The source of the shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into the depression. In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change through 36 hours. By 48 hours, the system should have moved north of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters should finally allow for some strengthening. During the latter part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Much of this forecast is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36 hours, however. The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic. Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the depression, causing it to turn back to the north and north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period. This developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than previously thought, and most of the models have shifted significantly westward after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as the deterministic models and the consensus aids. Therefore, additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.7N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-08-29 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 076 WTNT25 KNHC 292032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 50.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-29 16:56:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 167 WTNT44 KNHC 291456 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Ida's rapid strengthening appears to have leveled off within the past hour or so. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been in the storm this morning have reported peak flight-level winds of 146 to 148 kt between 8000 and 10000 ft, and believable SFMR winds around 130 kt. Based on these observations, the initial wind speed remains 130 kt for this advisory. The central pressure appears to have bottomed out around 929 mb, and the latest dropsonde in the eye from the Air Force plane supports a minimum pressure of 933 mb. Ida's satellite and radar presentation is very impressive, as the 15-nm-wide eye is very well-defined and surrounded by a ring of intense convection. Within the past hour or so, there is evidence in radar imagery of a secondary eyewall, and this has likely caused Ida's intensity to level off for now. Although Ida's extreme winds are confined to the inner eyewall, the aircraft data indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward about 45 n mi to the northeast of the center, and based on buoy data the tropical-storm-force wind field extends outward about 130 n mi northeast of the center. Ida's eyewall is nearing the coast of Louisiana, and any additional strengthening seems less likely now given the recent structural changes of the inner core. While rapid weakening should occur after landfall, damaging winds will penetrate well inland across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through tonight. Ida is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression over Mississippi by late Tuesday. The global model guidance now indicates that Ida will likely transition to an extratropical low when it nears the east coast of the United States and the new forecast shows the extratropical low becoming a gale center near Atlantic Canada at day 5. Ida has begun to slow down according to the latest aircraft and radar fixes, and the initial motion estimate is 320/11 kt. Ida's forward speed is likely to slow further during the next 12 to 24 hours as the hurricane turns north-northwestward, and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast. The cyclone is predicted to turn northeastward by late Tuesday ahead of a short-wave trough that will move across the central United States. The new NHC track is close to the HCCA corrected consensus and the GFS ensemble mean, and is not very different from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected today within the Hurricane Warning in southeastern Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 28.8N 90.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 90.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1200Z 31.6N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 33.2N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 34.9N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0000Z 36.4N 85.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 37.8N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 43.5N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-08-29 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The system has become better organized this morning, with the low-level center located on the southwestern edge of a persistent mass of deep convection. A 1246 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed an area of winds over 40 kt southeast of the center, so the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Julian with maximum winds of 45 kt. Julian is accelerating toward the northeast (045/15 kt) in the flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is expected to move around the southeastern and eastern periphery of this large low during the next few days, accelerating further and turning toward the north by 48 hours. The track models are all in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. This new forecast is also relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. Winds in the storm have increased faster than expected, even in the face of 20 kt of west-southwesterly shear. This shear is forecast to increase substantially in the coming days, with SHIPS diagnostics indicating it may reach magnitudes of 40-50 kt. However, the storm will still be moving over marginally warm waters around 26 degrees Celsius, and its fast motion and some baroclinic forcing could allow for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Nearly all the intensity models support some strengthening, and the NHC official forecast peaks the winds at 55 kt in 24 hours, roughly between the IVCN and HCCA solutions. Phase-space diagrams suggest that Julian will probably already be going through extratropical transition at that time, and it should be fully extratropical by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated after 24 hours, and the extratropical low is likely to dissipate over the north Atlantic by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 35.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-29 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 291452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 46.8W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 46.8W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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