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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-08-30 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 170SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 90.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.5N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.8N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-30 16:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 301453 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 50.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 50.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 17

2021-08-30 10:59:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300859 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Ida is now located well inland over southwestern Mississippi and weakening rapidly. However, Doppler velocity data from the Slidell, Louisiana, WSR-88D radar before it went down was still indicating velocity values near 90 kt between 4,000-4,500 ft, while the latest velocity data from Jackson, Mississippi, have been in the 70-75 kt range between 7,500 and 8,000 ft well east of the center. Thus, Ida will still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in some of the stronger showers and thunderstorms for the next few hours. The intensity at 0600 UTC was 65 kt, which was based on a decay rate of about 10 kt per hour. A slightly slower decay rate of about 5 kt per hour has been used since then, which is the basis for the 50-kt advisory intensity at 0900 UTC. The estimated pressure of 990 mb is based on surface observation data, especially from McComb, Mississippi (KMCB), which has been reporting pressures near 995 mb with 25-30 kt of wind the past couple of hours. The initial motion estimate is now 355/07 kt. Ida should continue moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge situated over the southeastern United States. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the cyclone, with that motion continuing through the remainder of the week. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle off the tightly packed consensus models. Rapid weakening will continue as Ida moves farther inland over Mississippi due to land interaction and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt. However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to continue over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through through this morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical depression this evening. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in the day 4-5 period. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then northeastward along the forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue through this morning along portions of the coast between Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through this morning and early afternoon. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, considerable flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 31.0N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1800Z 32.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0600Z 33.7N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1800Z 35.1N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0600Z 36.6N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1800Z 38.1N 80.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 40.1N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 40.5N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-30 10:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300858 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021 The deep convection with Tropical Depression Ten is in a sheared bursting pattern this morning, associated with overshooting cloud top temperatures below -80 C. A 0518 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass did show a bit of banding associated with this activity on the 37 GHz low-level channel. However, Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicates this convective activity remains located downshear of the low-level center thanks to very strong 30-50 kt northwesterly flow associated with a subtropical jet at 200 mb. The latest round of subjective Dvorak estimates were 25 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Taking a blend of these estimates and the earlier ASCAT wind data supports keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has resumed a northward motion this morning, with the latest estimate at 360 degrees at 7 kt. A deep-layer trough passing by well to the north is continuing to provide a weakness in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to escape northward. The system could even move a bit east of due north over the next 24-36 hours if down-shear convective bursts help to drag the low-level center a bit right of the steering flow. After 36 hours, the deep-layer trough moves eastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build back in. The net result is that the depression should turn leftward and begin a more northwestward motion by the latter part of this week. The latest track guidance has once again made another westward shift this cycle after 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction as well. However, the latest track is still not as far west as the GFS & ECMWF models, and further westward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. Strong upper-level flow is the primary hindrance for the depression currently. In fact, both GFS & ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the vertical wind shear remaining above 30 kt for the next 24 hours as the cyclone moves through the core of a subtropical jet streak. Interestingly, this shearing flow seems to be mostly based in the upper-levels, with much lower mid-level shear diagnosed by UW-CIMSS. This lower mid-level shear may help explain why deep-convection has not yet been completely stripped away from the low-level center. After 36 hours, most of the guidance agrees that an upper-level low will cut off to the southwest of the depression, providing a more favorable upper-level environment over the system. However, it remains unclear what will be left of the depression by that time, and the latest 00z ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON runs suggest the vortex will be too weak and diffuse to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain the current intensity through 48 hours, with only modest intensification beginning after that time assuming the circulation is coherent enough to take advantage of the more favorable environment. The latest intensity forecast is just a bit lower than the previous forecast, and is also lower than the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It remains distinctly possible that the depression could become a remnant low if its convection is completely stripped away. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 20.8N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 22.6N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 23.6N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.8N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 26.1N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 27.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 30.8N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

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Remnants of Nora Forecast Discussion Number 19

2021-08-30 10:53:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300852 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Nora Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021 Satellite analysts have been unable to identify a low-level center associated with Nora, and scatterometer and synoptic data show no surface circulation. Therefore the system has dissipated and this is the last advisory on this system. However, the moisture field of Nora's remnants will continue to move poleward over the next few days and could contribute to rainfall enhancement over the southwestern United States later this week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected across the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wednesday, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 25.3N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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