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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 16:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 698 WTNT24 KNHC 291452 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.6N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.2N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.9N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.4N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.8N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-29 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291445 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Nora has a healthy satellite appearance this morning. The deep convection near and to the west of the estimated center is maintaining a fairly large central dense overcast with very cold infrared cloud tops. Recent ATMS and SSMIS microwave data indicate Nora still has a pronounced mid-level eye structure, with the center very near the coast of extreme southern Sinaloa. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and 12 UTC subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial intensity at 65 kt for this advisory. The estimated initial motion of Nora is north-northwestward or 345/9 kt, although this is somewhat uncertain due to the lack of in-situ observations. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone generally north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days. This motion will bring the center over the eastern Gulf of California and very near or over the coast of west-central Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is adjusted just slightly to the right of the previous one, in line with the latest track guidance. Nora's intensity forecast remains highly dependent on whether the center moves inland over mainland Mexico or along the Gulf of California, parallel to the west-central coast of Mexico. Given the slight eastward track adjustment, the official NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening over the next few days due to at least intermittent land interaction as Nora skirts the coast. This is consistent with the general intensity guidance consensus, which no longer supports strengthening given Nora's proximity to land. Due to the complex geography of western Mexico, even a slight eastward deviation from the forecast track would result in more rapid weakening as Nora moves further inland. Conversely, a more northwestward motion over the warm Gulf of California waters could allow Nora to remain a stronger tropical storm early this week. As previously mentioned, confidence in the intensity forecast is lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa today and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward near or over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 23.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-29 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291444 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 106.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 775 WTNT45 KNHC 291433 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28 degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5, although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories. The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5, are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-29 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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