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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 18

2021-08-30 04:40:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300240 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA AND ALL OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 107.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-30 04:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300239 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.3N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.1N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 48.5N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 53.0N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 57.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 41.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-08-30 04:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300237 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center. Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period, then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus. The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to the track may be necessary. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 20.1N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-30 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-29 22:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 NWS Doppler radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that Ida made landfall around 1655 UTC along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port Fourchon with estimated maximum winds of 130 kt and a minimum pressure around 930 mb. Since that time, Ida made a second landfall southwest of Galliano, Louisiana, and with the eyewall now onshore weakening has begun. Based on the latest Doppler velocities the initial wind speed has been conservatively reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. As Ida's circulation moves farther inland this evening and overnight a faster rate of weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to become a tropical depression over Mississippi by late Monday. Although weakening is forecast, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. By 72 hours, Ida is predicted to merge with a frontal zone over the eastern United States and become an extratropical low, and this low is forecast to strengthen into a gale center near Atlantic Canada by the end of the forecast period. Radar fixes indicate that Ida's forward motion has slowed and the initial motion estimate is 325/9 kt. The hurricane should turn northward tonight around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast. Ida is forecast to turn northeastward and recurve over the eastern United States as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The GFS is a bit faster in ejecting the post-tropical cyclone northeastward on days 3 through 5, and the NHC forecast follows a blend of the various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level will continue through early this evening along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected through tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall through Monday across the central Gulf Coast across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 29.5N 90.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 30.7N 90.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 34.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 35.6N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0600Z 37.1N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 38.6N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 41.3N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 43.8N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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