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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-29 22:52:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292052 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations along the west-central coast of Mexico suggest that the center of Nora has re-formed closer to a mass of deep convection that has persisted today over the southern Gulf of California. Various satellite data sets indicate that Nora is weakening. The latest SSMIS microwave data reveal that the structure of Nora has degraded since this morning, especially in the mid-levels where an eyewall structure is no longer evident. Additionally, a 15 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows the winds are substantially weaker than previously estimated. Thus, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is somewhat uncertain given the earlier center relocation, but it is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. The global models suggest the tropical cyclone will move generally northwestward over the next couple of days, between an upper-level low offshore the Baja California peninsula and a mid-level ridge to the east of Nora. This motion should keep the center of Nora along the coast, or just inland over mainland west-central or northwestern Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is once again shifted a little to the right based on the latest track guidance, which brings the cyclone further inland by Tuesday. Nora is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days as the system continues to interact with the coastline of Mexico. Despite warm SSTs in the Gulf of California and weak environmental shear, it appears unlikely that Nora will move far enough away from the coast to take advantage of this favorable environment. In fact, it is certainly plausible that the center of Nora could move well inland earlier than forecast and weaken more rapidly. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted about 10 kt weaker at all forecast hours based on today's data supporting a much weaker initial intensity. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength while it moves near the coast of Sinaloa and southern Sonora through early Tuesday, and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-29 22:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 982 WTNT24 KNHC 292051 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 90.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 90.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 90.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.7N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.4N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.6N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.1N 84.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.6N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 41.3N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 43.8N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 90.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-29 22:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292050 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF MAZATLAN TO ESCUINAPA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 107.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-29 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292039 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021 The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low. The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning, with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one, and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 36.7N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julian Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-29 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 292038 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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