Home › forecast
 

Keywords :   


Tag: forecast

Remnants of Nora Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-30 10:50:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300850 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 108.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number advisory forecast nora

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-30 04:46:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 380 WTNT41 KNHC 300246 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 Julian has been showing signs of a transition into an extratropical cyclone over the past several hours. The deep convection has become detached to the northeast from the low-level center and cloud tops of that convection are warming. A line of convection to the south of the center resembles a frontal boundary, with recent scatterometer data showing a notable wind shift along that line. Based on the structural changes noted above, as well as a majority of FSU phase-space diagrams from the various global models, Julian is estimated to have transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Recent ASCAT data showed the cyclone's intensity remains 50 kt. The cyclone is forecast to maintain this intensity through Monday before weakening. It is then forecast to dissipate in a few days over the northern Atlantic. The system should continue to move quickly northeastward through Monday, then turn northward and northwestward Monday night into Tuesday. This is the last advisory on Julian by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 38.1N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/1200Z 40.3N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 31/0000Z 44.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/1200Z 48.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0000Z 53.0N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1200Z 57.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: number discussion forecast julian

 
 

Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-08-30 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300244 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Although Ida has been inland over southeastern Louisiana for several hours, it is still a very well organized hurricane. Doppler radar images indicate that the hurricane continues to have a well-defined eye, though the eyewall has become a bit ragged on the southwest side. Beyond the inner core, rain bands remain well established, especially on the system's east side. Earlier this evening, there were reports of extreme wind gusts over 120 kt along the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Based on Doppler radar velocity data over the past hour or two, the initial intensity is estimated to be 90 kt. As Ida continues inland, rapid weakening is expected due to a combination of land interaction and an increase in wind shear. However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread further inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a tropical depression by Monday night. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in 4 days or so. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then northeastward along the forecast track. Ida is expected to turn northward by early Monday as it moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the system, with that motion continuing through much of the remainder of the week. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south or right of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through tonight along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it continues inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Monday across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves farther inland, considerable flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 30.3N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 16

2021-08-30 04:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300243 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 90.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-08-30 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 168 WTPZ44 KNHC 300241 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Nora appears to have moved inland, and it is unclear if it still has a well-defined surface center. Earlier microwave data was inconclusive regarding the existence of the low level center, while the Dvorak analysts from TAFB and SAB were each unable to fix Nora's center over water. The intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, assuming weakening has occurred due to continued interaction with land. Baring an unexpected redevelopment of the center over water, Nora should continue to weaken inland, and could dissipate as soon as early Monday. Quick dissipation is now supported by all of the dynamical guidance. Accordingly, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted much lower than in the previous advisory. Nora is forecast to become post-tropical tomorrow and dissipate by Tuesday. Based on recent trends, this forecast is probably generous. Despite the uncertainty associated with Nora's position, the system still appears to be moving generally north-northwestward, with an initial motion of 330/10 kt. None of the dynamical guidance is able to track a low-level center more than about 24 h. However,there is good agreement that the mid-level remnants of Nora will continue moving generally northwestward and could contribute to heavy rain across northwest Mexico and portions of the southwestern U.S. during the middle to latter portion of the week. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Nayarit northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 24.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] next »