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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2017-09-25 16:38:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 251438 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-25 16:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 30.8, -49.9 with movement SSW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 30

2017-09-25 16:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 251437 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 ...LEE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 49.9W ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 49.9 West. Lee is moving toward the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The hurricane is expected to turn toward the west by Tuesday and toward the west-northwest by Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 30

2017-09-25 16:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 251437 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 49.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 49.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.6N 52.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 53.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.4N 54.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 45.0N 39.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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