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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 31
2017-09-25 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 252038 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 ...LITTLE LEE WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 50.6W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Lee is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is expected to turn toward the west later tonight or on Tuesday, and then move toward the west-northwest by Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee remains a very compact a tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles(55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2017-09-25 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 252038 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 31
2017-09-25 22:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 252037 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 50.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 50.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.4N 51.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.5N 53.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.8N 55.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.5N 54.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 40.2N 47.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 46.9N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Lee Graphics
2017-09-25 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 14:52:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 14:52:46 GMT
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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 30
2017-09-25 16:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 251445 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 While Lee is still displaying a distinct 10-15 nm eye in the GOES-16 visible imagery this morning, the deep convection of the cirrus canopy is lopsided with most of the cold cloud tops west of the center. This may be due to moderate vertical shear induced by an upper-low southwest of the hurricane. The SAB, TAFB, and Advanced Dvorak Technique intensity estimates have not changed, so 80 kt is retained for the maximum sustained winds. Lee is now moving again, with a 12-h motion of south-southwest at 2 kt. As a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Lee, the hurricane should turn toward the west on Tuesday and west-northwest on Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed. Starting in about three days, Lee should begin recurvature toward the northeast, accelerating to over 20 kt by day 5 as the hurricane enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted some toward the west through day 4, toward the tightly-packed global and hurricane model guidance. The moderate vertical shear affecting Lee and some upwelled cool water under the hurricane may cause slightly weakening shortly. After Lee moves back toward warmer water, the hurricane may restrengthen some, but it is not anticipated that the system will reach major hurricane status. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF, LGEM, and COAMPS guidance. Lee remains a tiny hurricane, though no recent information has been available about its wind radii. The official size forecast anticipates a slight increase in tropical storm force and hurricane force wind radii, based upon the RVCN size consensus method. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 30.8N 49.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 30.6N 52.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 31.0N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 31.5N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 33.4N 54.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 37.9N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 45.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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