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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-09-25 10:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250854 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 Lee continues to hold steady in intensity. The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains quite distinct, and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold. Since the Dvorak classifications remain the same as earlier, the initial intensity is again held at 80 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective numbers. It is interesting to note that Lee remains a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center. Lee remains in a favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening, but SSTs beneath the cyclone are marginal, in part due to the hurricane moving over its own cool wake. Lee is expected to move over slightly warmer waters in a day or so, and that could allow the system to strengthen a little. Later in the forecast period, drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause weakening. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The trough that had been steering Lee to the east or southeast much of the day on Sunday has now bypassed the system leaving Lee in weak steering currents. A ridge is expected to build to the north of the hurricane by tonight, and that should cause the system to begin moving west-southwestward or westward. By mid-week, a trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and it should cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.1N 49.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 30.9N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 30.7N 50.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 30.8N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 31.2N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 32.7N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 42.5N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-25 10:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 29
2017-09-25 10:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 ...LEE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 49.4W ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.4 West. Lee is stationary, but a slow west-southwest to west motion is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2017-09-25 10:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 250853 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 29
2017-09-25 10:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250852 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.7N 50.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.2N 53.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.7N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 36.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 42.5N 42.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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