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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-24 11:03:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 09:03:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 09:28:14 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 33
2017-09-24 10:57:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240857 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Maria has reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt in the southeastern eyewall, with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer between 75-80 kt. The plane also reported that the central pressure has risen to 948 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 95 kt, and it is possible that this is a bit generous. The initial motion is 355/8, with Maria currently being steered by the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States. A general motion toward the north or north- northwest should continue for the next 3 days or so, with some decrease in forward speed as a mid-latitude westerly ridge moves through the New England states to the north of the hurricane. After 72 h, the westerlies move south and erode the subtropical ridge, which should allow Maria to recurve to the northeast. The track guidance supports this scenario, although there is some disagreement on the timing and the location of the recurvature. The new forecast track lies a little to the north and west of the previous track in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected consensus model. However, the 72 and 96 h points lie a little to the east of the forecasts of the GFS and ECMWF models. Regardless of where the recurvature occurs, Maria is a large cyclone and the associated tropical storm force winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina coast. Fluctuations in intensity appear likely during the next 24-36 h as Maria remains over warm water and in an environment of light or moderate shear. After that time, the hurricane is likely to encounter the colder water left by Hurricane Jose, which should cause a weakening trend. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance and, except for a downward nudge at 12 and 24 h, is similar to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area later today. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.9N 72.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.9N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 30.1N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 31.2N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 32.1N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 34.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-09-24 10:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 240856 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 4(23) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 4(26) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 3(30) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 11(29) 2(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 11(32) 2(34) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 11(37) 2(39) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 2(22) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 30(48) 14(62) 1(63) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 1(21) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 22(33) 9(42) 1(43) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 25(41) 11(52) X(52) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 23(37) 10(47) X(47) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 17(26) 8(34) X(34) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15(22) 6(28) X(28) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 13(22) 6(28) 1(29) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 1(19) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-24 10:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT MARIA IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 27.9, -72.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 33
2017-09-24 10:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240856 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS THAT MARIA IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 72.7W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 72.7 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United States southeast coast during the next two days. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). During the past several hours, NOAA buoy 41047 located to the east of the center reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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