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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-09-24 16:43:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241443 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 101 to 117 kt over the eastern and southeastern portion of the Maria this morning. However, surface wind estimates from the SFMR suggest that these winds are not mixing to the surface at the usual efficiency, as the highest SFMR winds on both flights have been around 80 kt. Based on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds the initial wind speed has been reduced to 90 kt. The initial motion estimate is 350/8 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days while Maria is steered between a cut-off low/trough over the southeastern U.S. and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. Maria is predicted to slow down within the next couple of days as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of the hurricane. After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward as the ridge to the north weakens and a broad mid-latitude trough begins to move eastward over the northern United States. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there remains a fair amount of spread on the timing of recurvature, with the ECMWF a little farther west and slower than much of the remainder of the guidance. The updated NHC track is between the ECWMF and the various consensus aids, and very close to the previous official forecast. Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm-force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina coast by mid-week regardless of the exact forecast track. Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the next day or so while Maria moves over warm water and remains in a low shear environment. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters from the wake of Hurricane Jose that traversed the same area last week will likely cause a gradual decrease in intensity. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast by midweek. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area later today. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 28.7N 72.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.7N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 34.4N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 35.5N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 36.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-09-24 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 241442 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 3(27) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 3(29) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 2(18) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 8(32) 1(33) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 8(34) 2(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 22(29) 9(38) 1(39) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 23(35) 10(45) X(45) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 18(31) 26(57) 10(67) 1(68) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 21(40) 7(47) 1(48) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 15(27) 22(49) 7(56) 1(57) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 22(45) 7(52) 1(53) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 17(32) 5(37) 1(38) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 14(27) 4(31) 1(32) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 12(26) 4(30) X(30) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 3(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-24 16:42:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 28.7, -72.9 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 34
2017-09-24 16:42:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 72.9W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 34
2017-09-24 16:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241441 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 72.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 72.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 73.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.4N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.5N 71.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 36.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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