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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 33
2017-09-24 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240855 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 72.7W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 240SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 72.7W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 72.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.9N 72.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N 73.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.2N 73.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.1N 73.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 36.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 72.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-24 05:03:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:31:53 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-09-24 04:56:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240256 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt. However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 100 kt in this advisory. During the next 24 hours while Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then begin. Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude 34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance. These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area on Sunday. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 27.0N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 31.5N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 33.2N 73.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 34.5N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 35.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2017-09-24 04:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 240255 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 4(23) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 3(25) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 4(32) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 14(51) 3(54) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 9(34) 2(36) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 23(32) 10(42) 3(45) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 21(29) 10(39) 2(41) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 7(24) 1(25) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 2(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 32
2017-09-24 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United States southeast coast during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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