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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 32
2017-09-24 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240254 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 72.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 210SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 72.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N 73.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.5N 72.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-24 04:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Maria was located near 27.0, -72.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-23 22:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 20:52:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Sep 2017 21:28:43 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-09-23 22:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232048 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Maria's eye became cloud filled again today, although convective cloud tops have been cooling within the eyewall during the past couple of hours. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane conducting a research mission has not yet sampled the entire circulation, but they did report that the central pressure had fallen by a couple of millibars. In addition, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched by the plane has been measuring winds of 120-125 kt at altitudes of 1200-1300 ft, which supports maximum surface winds of 100 kt. The initial motion remains north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt, but Maria is expected to turn northward by this evening or overnight while moving between a mid-level high near Bermuda and a cut-off low over the northeastern Gulf coast. A blocking ridge sliding eastward over the northeastern U.S. should cause Maria to slow down to a forward motion of 5 kt or less beginning in about 36 hours, lasting through the end of the forecast period. The track models appear to have stabilized for the moment, with this being the first cycle in about a day where they have not shown a significant westward shift. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast during the first 3 days. The day 4 point was shifted a little closer to the North Carolina coast to be closer to the consensus aids and the Florida State Superensemble, and all the models indicate that a northeastward motion away from the coast should begin by day 5. Vertical shear will remain relatively low over Maria for the next several days, and the hurricane will be moving over warm waters at least for the next 3 days. However, the depth of the thermocline does become more shallow, with oceanic heat content values steadily decreasing over the next 36 hours. With Maria expected to slow down, upwelling of colder water becomes a greater factor, and that could modulate the hurricane's intensity during the next several days. Maria also could still move over Jose's cold wake in 4-5 days, which would likely cause additional weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains just above the intensity consensus, however it should be noted that the normally skillful HCCA model is toward the lower end of the guidance suite. It therefore wouldn't be surprising if Maria weakened more than shown in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast, and it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area on Sunday. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.3N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 27.6N 72.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.1N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 30.1N 73.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 31.1N 73.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 32.9N 73.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 34.5N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2017-09-23 22:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 232047 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 6(25) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 7(29) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 7(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 8(34) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 8(38) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 5(23) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 18(49) 8(57) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 5(20) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 13(34) 6(40) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 21(28) 13(41) 7(48) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 12(38) 7(45) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 9(27) 6(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 8(23) 5(28) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 7(23) 5(28) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 4(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 3(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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