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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2017-09-23 10:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 230852 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 7(26) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 19(35) 7(42) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 5(27) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 12(29) 5(34) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 12(26) 5(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 4(23) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 3(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 3(20) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-23 10:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Maria was located near 24.8, -72.0 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 29

2017-09-23 10:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230852 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 72.0W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 72.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Maria should move away from the Bahamas into the open waters of the western Atlantic today. Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Locally gusty winds are possible across the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands today. STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands will subside as Maria moves away from those islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of less than one inch, with isolated maximum amounts near 2 inches over Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 29

2017-09-23 10:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230851 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 150SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.0N 72.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 72.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.2N 72.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 34.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 36.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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