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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 28
2017-09-23 04:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230235 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS... ...HIGH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 71.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF NASSAU ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 71.7 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a gradual turn to the north should begin on Saturday. This forecast will bring the core of Maria east of the Bahamas on Saturday, and then over the open waters of the western Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. No important changes in intensity are expected on Saturday, but gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still likely over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the next several hours, but should subside on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the central Bahamas on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands will subside as Maria moves away from those islands. RAINFALL: Rains are expected to gradually diminish across portions of the Turks and Caicos as well as the eastern Bahamas as Maria continues to move north of those islands Friday night and Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts of an inch or less are expected over those areas through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda tonight and Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-09-23 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 230235 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) 6(31) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 5(20) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 5(25) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 4(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-09-23 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230235 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 71.7W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 71.7W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 71.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 72.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.5N 72.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 72.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.7N 72.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 72.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 71.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-23 01:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 23:54:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:34:28 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-23 01:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SUCCESSFULLY SAMPLED THE EYEWALL OF MARIA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 23.8, -71.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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