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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2017-09-20 22:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 202038 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 26(37) 4(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 28(49) 10(59) 1(60) 1(61) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 3 33(36) 51(87) 5(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) GRAND TURK 50 X 5( 5) 48(53) 16(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 26(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 6 53(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) PUERTO PLATA 50 2 10(12) 8(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PUERTO PLATA 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 26 17(43) 3(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-20 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Maria was located near 18.8, -67.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 19

2017-09-20 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 67.3 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will continue to move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening. The center will then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 19

2017-09-20 22:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 202037 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 67.3W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 67.3W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.8N 72.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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