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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-09-20 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 200857 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 31(35) 13(48) 1(49) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 34(63) 3(66) X(66) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) GRAND TURK 34 1 5( 6) 38(44) 41(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 12(12) 45(57) 15(72) 1(73) X(73) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 20(53) X(53) X(53) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 15(17) 45(62) 11(73) 3(76) 1(77) X(77) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 12(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 36(39) 14(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 64 69 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 50 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) AGUADILLA PR 64 57 22(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 64 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 17
2017-09-20 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200857 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA NEARING PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 65.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF VIEQUES ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track the eye of Maria will make landfall in Puerto Rico in a couple of hours, cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it should maintain this intensity until landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Fajardo recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128 km/h) with a gust to 100 mph (161 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 917 mb (27.08 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and are spreading over Puerto Rico. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday: Central Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 2 to 5 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-09-20 10:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200856 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.6N 66.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 72.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-20 09:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA NEARING PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Maria was located near 17.9, -65.6 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 917 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-20 08:58:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...300 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...MARIA'S FURY AIMED AT PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES... As of 3:00 AM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Maria was located near 17.7, -65.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 913 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
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