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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 22A
2017-09-21 19:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211734 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 69.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 69.4 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion continuing through early Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently reported at Santiago de Los Caballeros in the Dominican Republic. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the island. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas today and tonight and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-21 16:54:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 14:54:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:28:46 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-09-21 16:48:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211448 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Maria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the hurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the previous advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as high as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has remained relatively steady. Although there were higher SFMR winds measured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight meteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running 5-10 kt too high. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Maria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from Hurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so. Therefore, some strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially aggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing. Gradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some increase in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat content over the western Atlantic. Still, Maria is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days. The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Maria will be moving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Maria is expected to turn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the western Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. The track models continue to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Catastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.2N 69.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-09-21 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 211448 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 13(29) 6(35) 1(36) X(36) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 3 26(29) 23(52) 4(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) MAYAGUANA 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 81 18(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 22 56(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GRAND TURK 64 3 38(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 78 1(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) PUERTO PLATA 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-21 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 20.2, -69.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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