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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-20 04:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 02:50:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 02:50:23 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-20 04:45:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200245 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Since the previous advisory, WSR-88D radar data from San Juan Puerto Rico has shown the development of concentric eyewalls and a double-wind maximum. This has led to an increase in the size of the 50- and 64-kt wind radii. An earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 157 kt and a few SFMR winds of 149-152 kt in the small inner eyewall between 2200 and 0000 UTC this evening. Based on these data, the initial wind speed was increased to 150 kt. The minimum pressure estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane. Since the outer eyewall has become better defined and the winds are increasing within the outer eyewall, it is likely that Maria's intensification will finally cease. However, Maria is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane until landfall in Puerto Rico early Wednesday. The passage of the core over Puerto Rico should cause some weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a major hurricane for several more days. Increasing shear and cooler waters over the western Atlantic in the wake of hurricanes Irma and Jose will likely lead to additional weakening late in the period. Maria is moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 9 kt. A weak ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days. This track will bring the center of Maria over Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so. After that time, a break in the ridge should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by late in the week. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours, yielding fairly high confidence in the track forecast through that time. There is some increase in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the GFS and HWRF farther west and faster, while the ECMWF is along the eastern edge of the guidance and slow. For now, the NHC track forecast is between the various consensus models at 96 and 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's core will pass near or over St. Croix within the next few hours and will approach the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico early Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands. Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the remainder of the Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. 4. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.3N 64.7W 150 KT 175 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.8W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 18.9N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 20.9N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 26.2N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 16
2017-09-20 04:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA NEARING ST. CROIX... ...CORE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 64.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move near or over St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the next couple of hours, then cross Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the area of hurricane-force winds has increased in size. Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb (26.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and will spread over Puerto Rico overnight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 3 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 3 to 6 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-09-20 04:44:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 200244 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KTS...175 MPH...280 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 2(19) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 18(40) 2(42) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 42(52) 9(61) X(61) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) X(31) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 43(58) 27(85) 2(87) X(87) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 35(60) 2(62) X(62) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 1(40) 1(41) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 5( 6) 31(37) 26(63) 7(70) 1(71) X(71) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 15(17) 30(47) 6(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 50 78 18(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PONCE PR 64 21 53(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) AGUADILLA PR 34 74 26(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 50 15 80(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) AGUADILLA PR 64 2 76(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 64 64 31(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 64 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT THOMAS 64 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-09-20 04:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200243 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 64.7W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 909 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 64.7W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 64.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.8W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 68.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N 69.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 64.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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