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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 22
2017-09-21 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 69.1W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic west of Andres/Boca Chica. The Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano has also been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Andres/Boca Chica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 69.1 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early Friday, with that motion continuing through early Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will continue to pass offshore of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic today, and then move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas tonight and on Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, with hurricane conditions expected tonight or early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. Strong gusty winds are still possible today over portions of Puerto Rico, especially in heavier rainbands that are moving over the island. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas today and tonight and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 22
2017-09-21 16:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 211447 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF ANDRES/BOCA CHICA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO ANDRES/BOCA CHICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 69.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 75SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 69.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 69.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 70.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 71.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 33.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-21 13:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 11:53:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 11:09:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-21 13:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA'S LARGE EYE PASSING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 19.9, -68.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 21A
2017-09-21 13:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 211151 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA'S LARGE EYE PASSING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 68.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 68.7 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside this morning. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the warning areas in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning in these areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late Friday. STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding during the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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