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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-20 20:00:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 18:00:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 15:28:41 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 18A

2017-09-20 19:58:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201758 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS MARIA'S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 66.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just offshore of the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 66.9 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon. The center will then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. The minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, and tropical storm conditions are continuing over the remainder of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-20 17:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 15:00:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 15:00:28 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 18

2017-09-20 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201440 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 The last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950 UTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico. Subsequent 1-minute imagery from the GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate that the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico, around 1015 UTC. Now that the center is moving over the mountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled, and the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar velocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my best guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate. Maria's center is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico soon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better estimate of how much Maria has weakened. The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt. This northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria moves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered this cycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC forecast track. Once Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some time for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. However, the shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit over that time period. After 36 hours, a gradual increase in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual decrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the forecast period. Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to the favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity forecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the forecast period. Since we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has become cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position updates are being discontinued. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin Islands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.4N 66.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 12H 21/0000Z 19.2N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.2N 70.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.4N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 28.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 31.5N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2017-09-20 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 201440 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 5(21) X(21) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 35(43) 7(50) X(50) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) 1(20) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 34(48) 16(64) 2(66) X(66) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) X(28) 1(29) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND TURK 34 2 18(20) 61(81) 13(94) 1(95) 1(96) X(96) GRAND TURK 50 X 3( 3) 42(45) 27(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 19(19) 30(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 48(51) 23(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 10(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PUERTO PLATA 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 8 33(41) 5(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 64 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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