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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-22 07:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF MARIA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 21.2, -70.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 24A
2017-09-22 07:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220537 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...EYE OF MARIA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 70.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 70.5 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (12 km/h), but a motion toward the north-northwest is anticipated later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will gradually move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue across portions of the Dominican Republic, but should begin to subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Northern Haiti...4 to 8 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-22 04:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 02:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 03:29:52 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-09-22 04:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220246 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening and the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that it has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little bit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or 115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since the SFMR measurements were a little lower. The central pressure is estimated at 955 mb. The atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean along the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity. However, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little and will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no significant change through that time. Gradual weakening should begin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes and cooler waters. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the hurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is reaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no significant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that time, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and recurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the next 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the track forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX and the HFIP corrected consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 70.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.0N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 29.3N 72.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 31.2N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-22 04:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA IS NOT IN A HURRY AND IS TAKING ITS TIME TO APPROACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 21.0, -70.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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