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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-21 10:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 08:50:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 09:29:00 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-09-21 10:43:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210843 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Although the large, 40 n mi diameter, eye of the hurricane is still a little ragged-looking, it is gradually becoming better defined, and a ring of cold cloud tops is intensifying around the eye. The current intensity estimate is 100 kt based on earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Maria is likely to move over warm waters with moderate southwesterly vertical shear for the next couple of days. Maria's well-developed upper-level outflow suggests that shear is probably not having much influence over the hurricane at this time. Although the numerical guidance is not very aggressive about intensification, based on the current trends of the cloud pattern, some strengthening seems likely over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, shear will probably cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Maria continues its northwestward motion, at about 315/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. Late in the forecast period, a mid-level high over the northeastern U.S. could slow the forward motion somewhat. This high is forecast by the global models to subsequently weaken however, which should allow Maria to turn north-northeastward in the flow on the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge over the west-central Atlantic. The official track forecast lies between the corrected consensus guidance and the latest ECMWF prediction. This is quite similar to the previous NHC track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring in Puerto Rico, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 19.6N 68.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 24.3N 71.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 30.0N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-09-21 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 210842 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 1(15) 1(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 11(38) 3(41) X(41) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 3 15(18) 34(52) 10(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) MAYAGUANA 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 27 69(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 2 65(67) 10(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GRAND TURK 64 X 30(30) 13(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 76 10(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) PUERTO PLATA 50 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-21 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA CONTINUES TO LASH THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 19.6, -68.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 21
2017-09-21 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO LASH THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 68.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Punta Cana in the eastern Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside this morning. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the warning areas in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning in these areas later today. STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding during the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Puerto Rico...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and Mayaguana in southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Inagua Islands, Crooked Island, and rest of southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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