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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 17A

2017-09-20 13:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201156 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...EYE OF MARIA LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 66.1W ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has changed the Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 66.1 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will continue to move across Puerto Rico this morning and emerge off the northern coast by this afternoon. The center will then pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it is forecast to retain this intensity while it moves across Puerto Rico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 109 mph (175 km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) with a gust to 118 mph (190 km/h) was recently reported at Camp Santiago, Puerto Rico. A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor recently reported a water level of 5.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday: Central Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 2 to 5 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Maria Update Statement

2017-09-20 12:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT65 KNHC 201059 TCUAT5 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 700 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...700 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... A sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 113 mph (182 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at Camp Santiago, Puerto Rico. SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 65.9W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF VIEQUES ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-20 12:59:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...700 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... As of 7:00 AM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Maria was located near 18.0, -65.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 917 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-20 11:09:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 09:09:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 09:30:51 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-09-20 10:58:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200858 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from 10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening, and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range. Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria remains an extremely dangerous hurricane. Some weakening is likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico. Later in the forecast period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful hurricane for the next 5 days. The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the model consensus. Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at about 9 kt. The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days. This track will bring the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so. After that time a break in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose, should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the track forecast through that time. There is some increase in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at the end of the period. The official forecast is very close to the latest FSU Superensemble track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's core will make landfall over Puerto Rico within the next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts to the island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.9N 65.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.6N 66.7W 125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.5N 70.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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