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Hurricane Maria Update Statement

2017-09-20 00:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT65 KNHC 192256 TCUAT5 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 700 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...700 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA STILL STRENGTHENING... Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84). A wind gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in the eastern portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 64.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-20 00:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...700 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA STILL STRENGTHENING... As of 7:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19 the center of Maria was located near 16.9, -64.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 909 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 175 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-19 22:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 20:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 20:48:36 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 15

2017-09-19 22:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192046 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Maria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central pressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb. The aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the inner eyewall. The initial motion remains 300/9. The forecast track philosophy remains the same, with the eye of Maria expected to move near the U. S. Virgin Islands tonight and across Puerto Rico on Wednesday, followed by a motion just north of the eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Subsequently, a break in the subtropical ridge caused in part by Hurricane Jose should allow Maria to turn north-northwestward and northward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes have occurred in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its maximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start of the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little bit. The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and after that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level winds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands. Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. 3. A hurricane warning also in effect for the remainder of the Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. 4. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.8N 64.0W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 17.5N 65.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 18.4N 66.7W 130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 36H 21/0600Z 19.3N 68.1W 125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 21/1800Z 20.2N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 22.5N 71.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 25.5N 72.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2017-09-19 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 192043 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) 5(39) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 39(45) 14(59) 2(61) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) X(30) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 45(84) 4(88) X(88) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 48(59) 6(65) X(65) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 3(42) 1(43) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 40(60) 16(76) 1(77) X(77) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 18(44) 1(45) X(45) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 1(22) X(22) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 5( 6) 34(40) 19(59) 5(64) 1(65) X(65) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 62 38(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONCE PR 50 12 84(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PONCE PR 64 1 72(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) AGUADILLA PR 34 10 88(98) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AGUADILLA PR 50 2 87(89) 7(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 51(51) 27(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SAN JUAN PR 34 82 18(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 35 63(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAN JUAN PR 64 2 75(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) VIEQUES PR 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 93 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) VIEQUES PR 64 24 47(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SAINT THOMAS 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 81 7(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SAINT THOMAS 64 10 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 64 76 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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