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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-22 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EYE OF MARIA NOW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES STARTING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 21.6, -70.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 25

2017-09-22 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...EYE OF MARIA NOW NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND DANGEROUS HIGH WAVES STARTING TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 70.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a motion toward the north-northwest is expected later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic should subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas beginning late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2017-09-22 10:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 220843 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 12(15) 8(23) 4(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 42 11(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) MAYAGUANA 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 64 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 25

2017-09-22 10:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220842 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 70.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 71.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 33.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 70.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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