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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 21

2017-09-21 10:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210841 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 68.4W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 45SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 68.4W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.3N 71.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 68.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-21 07:55:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 05:55:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2017 03:29:22 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-21 07:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Sep 21 the center of Maria was located near 19.4, -68.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 20A

2017-09-21 07:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210553 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 ...MARIA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 68.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 68.2 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early today. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the warning areas in the Dominican Republic. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning in these areas later today. STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should continue receding during the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Puerto Rico...20 to 30 inches, isolated 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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