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Hurricane Maria Update Statement
2017-09-19 11:06:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT65 KNHC 190906 TCUAT5 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5 status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-19 11:06:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... As of 5:10 AM AST Tue Sep 19 the center of Maria was located near 16.0, -62.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 930 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-19 10:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 08:56:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 08:56:40 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-19 10:53:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190853 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Interaction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain of Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of the hurricane. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft after the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about 135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength. Another Air Force aircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data from the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained category 5 intensity. Maria will be moving through a low-shear atmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next couple of days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the early part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events. Land influences could cause some weakening within the next 36 hours. Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. After smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Jose. This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 4-5. There is fairly good agreement amongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This is generally near the left side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and the corrected consensus predictions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight and Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 62.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.7N 63.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.6N 64.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 18.5N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO 48H 21/0600Z 19.3N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 21.2N 70.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.7N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-09-19 10:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 190852 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 13(42) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 32(56) 6(62) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 5(33) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 63(69) 15(84) 2(86) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 23(60) 1(61) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 21(40) 1(41) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 5(21) 1(22) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 1(16) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 49(65) 6(71) X(71) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 5(39) 1(40) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) 24(56) 3(59) X(59) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 2 37(39) 53(92) 3(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) PONCE PR 50 X 5( 5) 58(63) 8(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) PONCE PR 64 X 1( 1) 36(37) 11(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 11(12) 71(83) 12(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) 44(45) 28(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 24(24) 28(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 63(65) 33(98) 1(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 12(12) 75(87) 5(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) SAN JUAN PR 64 X 2( 2) 64(66) 9(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) VIEQUES PR 34 3 91(94) 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 1 53(54) 40(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) VIEQUES PR 64 X 20(20) 59(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT THOMAS 34 7 90(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 1 62(63) 22(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 24(24) 29(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT CROIX 34 37 63(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 2 90(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT CROIX 64 X 70(70) 13(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT MAARTEN 34 80 12(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT MAARTEN 50 5 11(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 47 2(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 71 1(72) X(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 92 X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) AVES 50 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) AVES 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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