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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-19 02:05:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190005 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and forecast intensity of Maria. Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data. Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall cycles and land interaction. No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica within the next hour or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that island. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0000Z 15.3N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-19 02:02:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190002 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Special Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...THE EYE AND THE INTENSE INNER CORE IS NEARING DOMINICA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Martique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla * St. Lucia * Martinique A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla * Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move near Dominica and the adjacent Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, but some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should be spreading across Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occurring over portions of the Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-09-19 01:59:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0000 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182359 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0000 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANGUILLA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA * ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.1W AT 19/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.1W AT 19/0000Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Maria Update Statement
2017-09-19 00:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT65 KNHC 182256 TCUAT5 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 700 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...700 PM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA NEARING DOMINICA... At 700 PM AST (2300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was estimated by data from the French radar on Martinique near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 60.9 West. A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported on Dominica. SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 60.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-19 00:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...700 PM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA NEARING DOMINICA... As of 7:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Maria was located near 15.3, -60.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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