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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-19 19:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 17:59:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 15:29:16 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 14A
2017-09-19 19:57:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191757 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... ...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 63.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata, a Tropical Storm Warning west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Warning west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque. The Government of France has changed the Hurricane Warning for Guadeloupe to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla * Guadeloupe * West of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * West of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla * Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria. Additional watches and warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 63.6 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and then pass near or over the Virgin Islands overnight and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane until it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). During the past few hours, the eye passed just north of NOAA buoy 42060, which reported 1-min average winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.37 inches). NOAA buoy 42060 reported a minimum pressure of 955.7 mb (28.22 inches) as the eye passed. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this afternoon, and spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring over the remainder of the Leeward Islands, and should spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico starting in the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will commence at 300 PM AST as the eye is now well-defined in data from the San Juan Doppler radar. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-19 16:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 14:53:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 14:53:52 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-19 16:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191449 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that Maria regained category 5 status shortly after the last advisory, and that it is currently maintaining an intensity near 140 kt with a central pressure near 927 mb. The aircraft data suggests an outer wind maximum that could be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle, but this feature does not yet have a good signature in radar data or microwave imagery. The eye of Maria has been wobbling quite a bit, but a smoother long-term motion is 300/9. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning or the forecast track since the previous advisory. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Jose off the U.S. east coast. This pattern should cause Maria to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by days 4-5. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 h and fairly well clustered at 120 h, and the new track is to the left of center of the cluster mainly between the GFS and ECMWF models. Maria should remain in a generally favorable environment through 48 h, and based on this and the latest guidance the new intensity forecast keeps Maria at 135-140 kt up to the time of landfall in Puerto Rico. After crossing Puerto Rico, the upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable, and the intensity forecast shows a slow weakening that follows the upper edge of the guidance. A complication to the intensity forecast is that there will likely be fluctuations caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on top of the general trends shown in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall. 2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 63.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-09-19 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 191448 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 9(41) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 28(57) 3(60) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 2(31) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 60(73) 11(84) 1(85) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 17(61) X(61) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 17(39) X(39) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 1(20) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) 36(68) 4(72) X(72) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 3(39) X(39) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 30(47) 14(61) 1(62) 1(63) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 3 87(90) 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PONCE PR 50 1 54(55) 27(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) PONCE PR 64 X 17(17) 38(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 61(63) 33(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 19(19) 61(80) 6(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 3( 3) 51(54) 9(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) SAN JUAN PR 34 5 92(97) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 2 83(85) 12(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAN JUAN PR 64 X 42(42) 38(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) VIEQUES PR 34 40 60(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 5 91(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) VIEQUES PR 64 X 72(72) 6(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT THOMAS 34 61 38(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 9 81(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAINT THOMAS 64 1 34(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 34 93 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 66 33(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 64 5 78(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT MAARTEN 34 83 2(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) SAINT MAARTEN 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BARBUDA 34 59 1(60) X(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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