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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-19 04:59:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 02:59:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 02:59:45 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-09-19 04:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190255 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass from northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to 0000 UTC. The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity. Raw objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the center moved over land. Based on these data, the initial wind speed was increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that intensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight weakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane passed over Dominica. Since the center has moved over land, the aircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye. The aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be able to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of Dominica. Maria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear and over warm water during the next couple of days. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are possible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles. Land interaction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some gradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Maria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt. A weak ridge located over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5. The track guidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the NHC track forecast through 72 hours. At days 4 and 5, the global model envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast was adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP correct consensus and ECMWF model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.5N 61.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.9N 65.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.7N 66.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.8N 71.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2017-09-19 04:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 190254 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 18(42) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 11(61) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 8(32) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 34(79) 4(83) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 4(54) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 3(35) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) 2(22) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 4(17) 1(18) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 48(54) 15(69) 1(70) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 14(38) 1(39) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 1(22) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 38(54) 5(59) 1(60) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 2(25) X(25) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) PONCE PR 34 1 6( 7) 63(70) 23(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) PONCE PR 50 X 1( 1) 29(30) 38(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 12(12) 35(47) 6(53) X(53) X(53) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 44(89) 5(94) 1(95) X(95) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 11(11) 50(61) 13(74) 1(75) X(75) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 14(53) 1(54) X(54) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 9(10) 76(86) 12(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 1( 1) 47(48) 36(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 24(24) 41(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70) VIEQUES PR 34 2 39(41) 55(96) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 50 X 5( 5) 71(76) 13(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) VIEQUES PR 64 X 1( 1) 53(54) 17(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 52(54) 43(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 6( 6) 65(71) 6(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) SAINT CROIX 34 3 82(85) 14(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 1 32(33) 57(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAINT CROIX 64 X 10(10) 65(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) SAINT MAARTEN 34 13 67(80) 4(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 85 12(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 8 31(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 56 10(66) X(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) BARBUDA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ANTIGUA 50 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GUADELOUPE 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 82 14(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) AVES 50 6 25(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AVES 64 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 12

2017-09-19 04:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla * St. Lucia * Martinique A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla * Isla Saona to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria. Additional watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Ham radio reports indicate significant damage to structures has occurred in Dominica. The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 924 mb (27.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should continue over Dominica during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions should spread throughout portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainder of the Hurricane Warning area Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in St. Vincent and the Grenadines through tonight, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 12

2017-09-19 04:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190254 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANGUILLA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA * ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.7N 66.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.5N 69.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 71.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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