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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191450 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 28.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 28.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-19 14:55:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 12:55:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 12:55:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-19 14:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191253 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at 1500 UTC. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-19 14:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 191253 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 9:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 17.6, -56.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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