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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 191 WTNT31 KNHC 191247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.0 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 192 WTNT21 KNHC 191247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.0W AT 19/1300Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 13:18:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 191118 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Peter, located several hundred miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa later today or tonight. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter as the system moves generally westward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Latto
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 13:12:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191112 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-19 11:08:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:08:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:22:40 GMT
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