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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...ROSE BECOMES THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE BUSY 2021 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 29.9 West. Rose is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 192037 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 29.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 19:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 191746 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Peter, located several hundred miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Seventeen, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast to emerge offshore this evening. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A gale force non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 19:10:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191710 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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