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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2021-09-19 17:00:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:00:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:00:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Graphics
2021-09-19 16:59:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:59:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:59:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-19 16:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 191456 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)
2021-09-19 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 17.6, -56.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-19 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 56.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.5 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Based on data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today. Some slight weakening is expected tonight into Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the tropical storm could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late today through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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