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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2021-09-19 11:01:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:01:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:28:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-19 10:59:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190859 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0000 UTC ASCAT wind data of about 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by consensus Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/12 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed track models. Only modest strengthening is expected during the next 48 hour so while the small cyclone remains over 27-28 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear decreases to near 5 kt during that time. However, proximity to dry air is expected prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. By late Tuesday, a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin as the system moves over cooler water and the shear increases from the southwest. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models through 72 hours, and then is lower than the HCCA model on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.8N 28.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-19 10:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 389 WTNT41 KNHC 190849 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Deep convection has increased since the previous advisory, with the convective cloud pattern having taken on a more curved-band configuration compared to the earlier shear pattern. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the intensity to 35 kt. In addition, earlier ASCAT passes, which missed the center of circulation, did reveal 30-kt winds west of the center in convection-free areas. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection east of the center, which further supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Peter with a 35-kt intensity. The initial estimate is an uncertain 305/13 kt. Peter has made a slight jog to the north-northwest since the previous advisory, but this is likely a short-term motion owing to the center redeveloping farther to the north and east into the deep convection. However, a west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion through Wednesday as Peter moves around the southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. On Thursday and Friday, Peter is forecast to turn northward into a weakness in the ridge induced by the large Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The new forecast track has been shifted slightly to the right or north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCA and HCCA. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours or so as Peter moves over warmer sea-surface temperatures of about 29 deg C. However, proximity to very dry mid-level air and moderate deep-layer southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to prevent any significant or rapid strengthening. By early Tuesday and beyond, slow weakening is expected to begin due to increasing wind shear. The new official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.0N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-19 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 the center of Seventeen was located near 11.8, -28.2 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 123 WTNT32 KNHC 190836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 28.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 28.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are is expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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