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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 52.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 07:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 190530 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days. Gradual development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 07:26:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 190526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen, located a several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Island. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the small low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has also become more concentrated near the center, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form later this morning while the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2021-09-19 04:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 02:32:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 03:22:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-19 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190231 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time, but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those models near the consensus aids. Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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