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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-19 01:25:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 182325 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette, located a few hundred miles east-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization. In addition, satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If the current trend continues, advisories would likely be initiated on a tropical depression or tropical storm later tonight or early Sunday. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to reach cooler waters and an area of stronger upper-level winds early next week, which should limit its development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 19:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 19:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 181731 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odette, located a few hundred miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization. However, satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago indicated that the system does not yet have a well-defined surface circulation. Only a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is expected to occur later today or tonight while the low moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A low pressure system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days while moving toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to reach cooler waters and an area of stronger upper-level winds early next week, which could limit its development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Odette Graphics
2021-09-18 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 14:51:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 15:22:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette is well on its way through the extratropical transition process, with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation, and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing warm front. We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on continuity. Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an extratropical cyclone. The global models vary slightly on when extratropical transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in 36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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