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Tropical Storm Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 181449 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 2(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 1 29(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HALIFAX NS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Odette (AT5/AL152021)
2021-09-18 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ODETTE FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 18 the center of Odette was located near 38.5, -67.3 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odette Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 ...ODETTE FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 67.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected by this evening. Odette should then slow down and turn toward the east and southeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.3W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.3W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...270NE 0SE 180SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-18 13:45:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 181145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odette, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests there should monitor its progress. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next couple of days. A tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward at about 10 mph to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands before it reaches cooler waters and stronger upper-level winds early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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