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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-09-30 04:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 27.6, -43.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 31

2019-09-30 04:40:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas on Monday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday in the Azores. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 31

2019-09-30 04:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300238 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 110NW. 34 KT...280NE 300SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 43.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics

2019-09-29 22:46:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 20:46:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 21:24:44 GMT

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 30

2019-09-29 22:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292045 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948 mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours, and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory. The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so, extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is near the various multimodel consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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