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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 33

2019-09-30 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 301455 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA... AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...290NE 290SE 320SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 42.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics

2019-09-30 13:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 11:54:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:24:51 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-09-30 13:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 29.4, -42.9 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 32A

2019-09-30 13:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 314 WTNT33 KNHC 301154 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 42.9W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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