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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 29
2019-09-29 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291456 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial intensity is now 125 kt. Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of runs. However, there remains significant spread between the operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further adjustments in the next couple of advisories. Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by 96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and 50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 25.9N 44.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2019-09-29 16:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 291456 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 94(94) X(94) X(94) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) X(67) X(67) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-29 16:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 25.9, -44.4 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 29
2019-09-29 16:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on Monday and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in a couple of days. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 29
2019-09-29 16:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 291455 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 260SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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