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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 3
2019-09-23 17:03:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231502 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Corrected typo in discussion and outlook section ...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical storm should pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-23 16:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:47:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 14:47:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-23 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231446 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher. Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt. Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-23 16:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 231445 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-23 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 24.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 24.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 23.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 24.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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