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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-07-20 04:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200247 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.0W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.0W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-19 23:11:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 20:36:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 21:05:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-07-19 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning. The tropical storm still has several broken bands of convection around the circulation but microwave data indicate that there has been no improvement in the inner-core structure. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to T3.5, and the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Estelle's intensity forecasts have not been golden since the tropical cyclone has refused to strengthen during the past couple of days. There still appears to be a short window in which Estelle could strengthen, but given the lack of inner-core structure, it appears unlikely that significant intensification will occur. As a result, the NHC forecast now shows little change in wind speed tonight. Weakening should begin on Thursday and continue during the remainder of the period as Estelle moves over cooler water and into a more stable airmass. The tropical cyclone is expected to lose convection and become a remnant low within 72 hours. There has been no significant change to the track forecast or reasoning. Estelle continues moving west-northwestward to the south of the strong subtropical ridge that has steered all of the July eastern Pacific tropical cyclone westward to west- northwestward. The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast to weaken in about 72 hours, which should cause Estelle or its remnant low to turn northwestward by day 4. The track guidance is very tightly clustered and the NHC track is near an average of the GFS/ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-19 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE HEADING TO COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.0, -119.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 18
2016-07-19 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 192035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 ...ESTELLE HEADING TO COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 119.8W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 119.8 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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