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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-20 05:11:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2016 02:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2016 03:05:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-20 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200250 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Convection near the center of Estelle has deepened and become more symmetric this evening. Microwave data show some improvement in inner-core structure as well, although the low- and mid-level centers are still somewhat separated. Subjective Dvorak classifications are a little higher than 6 hours ago, so the wind speed is raised to 60 kt. Little significant change in strength is forecast overnight since the cyclone is quickly approaching cooler waters. With the recent upward trends in organization, however, Estelle could sneak up to hurricane intensity during that time, and this is reflected in the official forecast. A gradual weakening should begin by late Wednesday since Estelle will be moving over much cooler waters, with remnant low status likely by late Friday. The new NHC prediction is similar to the previous one and the intensity consensus, adjusted slightly higher for the initial wind speed. In contrast to the tricky intensity forecasts for Estelle, the track forecasts have been straightforward. A persistent subtropical ridge should continue to steer the storm westward to west- northwestward for the next couple of days. The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast to erode in about 72 hours, which will likely cause Estelle or its remnants to turn northwestward by day 4. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, with a westward shift to the latest NHC track forecast to better reflect the newest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.1N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-07-20 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200249 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-20 04:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.1, -121.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 19
2016-07-20 04:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 ...ESTELLE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 121.0W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in intensity is expected over the next day or so, although Estelle could become a hurricane before weakening on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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